Hillary Clinton is finished. It’s a matter of days.
Chris F. Masse May 7th, 2008
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2008 US Presidential Election Winner - Individual
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2008 US Presidential Elections
Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade
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Source: BetFair Politics Zone
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Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination
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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination
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Next US President Will Be Democratic.
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Next US President Will Be Republican.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:- Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election
- Who will Colin Powell endorse for president?
- MicroSoft will buy Yahoo! in 2008.
- The InTrade contracts on Iran are now worthless ---other than for the short sellers.
- Testing the brand-new InTrade widget
- A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
- JOHN BOLTON: Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities just after the next US presidential elections to be held in November 2008 ---but before Barack Obama takes office in January 2009.
Looks accurate to me