Who will Colin Powell endorse for president?
The InTrade contracts on Iran are now worthless —other than for the short sellers.
Chris F. Masse July 2nd, 2008
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Sphere: Related ContentTesting the brand-new InTrade widget
Chris F. Masse July 1st, 2008
InTrade’s Electoral Vote Index
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That widget does not play well with WordPress. See the disaster below.
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Intrade Electoral Vote Index
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McCain |
Obama |
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Undecided Votes |
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| 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win
Data by www.intrade.com |
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A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
Chris F. Masse June 29th, 2008
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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Sphere: Related ContentDEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES: A proposed solution for Florida and Michigan
Chris F. Masse May 27th, 2008
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Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.
DialIdol = the service to monitor before betting and trading on American Idol
Chris F. Masse May 26th, 2008
DialIdol is the most reliable, advanced, primary indicator for the American Idol competition.
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American Idol 2008
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Montana & Kentucky
Chris F. Masse May 19th, 2008
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Oregon’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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Kentucky’s Democratic Primary
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InTrade
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BetFair
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Sphere: Related Content
